Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump moving into statistical tie with Biden in Florida

Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump moving into statistical tie with Biden in Florida


By Jason Lange

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump pulled into a statistical tie with Democratic rival Joe Biden in Florida, one of the election’s most important battlegrounds, but Biden’s lead appeared to widen in Arizona, Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls showed on Wednesday.

A separate Reuters/Ipsos national poll found that Biden also leads Trump among all U.S. likely voters by 10 percentage points. The Oct. 9-13 poll showed that 51% of likely voters were supporting Biden, while 41% were backing Trump. Last week’s national poll had Biden ahead by 12 points.

Reuters/Ipsos is polling likely voters in six states – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona – that will play critical roles in deciding whether Trump wins a second term in office or if Biden ousts him.

    Below is a state-by-state look at Reuters/Ipsos findings, based on the online responses of likely voters, which include responses from some who cast ballots ahead of the formal Nov. 3 Election Day, which is increasingly common due to the coronavirus pandemic:

FLORIDA (Oct. 7 – Oct. 14):

** Voting for Biden: 49%

** Voting for Trump: 47%

** Prior poll showed Biden with a 49%-45% lead that was on the edge of the survey’s credibility interval.

** 17% said they already had voted.

** 49% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 44% said Trump would be better.

** 49% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 45% said Biden would be better.

   

ARIZONA (Oct. 7 – Oct. 14):

** Voting for Biden: 50%

** Voting for Trump: 46%

** Prior poll showed the two essentially even with Biden at 48% and Trump at 46%.

** 50% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 41% said Trump would be better.

** 49% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 45% said Biden would be better.

** 10% said they already had voted.

MICHIGAN (Oct. 7 – Oct. 13):

** Voting for Biden: 51%

** Voting for Trump: 43%

** Result unchanged from prior week.

** 22% said they already had voted.

** 51% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 41% said Trump would be better.

** 47% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 46% said Biden would be better.

NORTH CAROLINA (Oct. 7 – Oct. 13):

** Voting for Biden: 48%

** Voting for Trump: 47%

** The race was tied the prior week at 47%-47%.

** 12% said they already had voted.

** 47% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 45% said Trump would be better.

** 52% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 42% said Biden would be better.

WISCONSIN (Oct. 6 – Oct. 11):

** Voting for Biden: 51%

** Voting for Trump: 44%

** Biden up a point from 50%-44% lead in prior week

** 20% said they already had voted.

** 52% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 38% said Trump would be better.

** 47% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 46% said Biden would be better.

PENNSYLVANIA (Oct. 6 – Oct. 11):

** Voting for Biden: 51%

** Voting for Trump: 44%

** Biden lead up from 50%-45% lead in prior week

** 6% said they already had voted.

** 51% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 42% said Trump would be better.

** 50% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 45% said Biden would be better.

NOTES

** The Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls are conducted online in all six states in English, as well as in Spanish in Arizona and Florida.

** In Florida, from Oct. 7 to Oct. 14, it gathered responses from 1,000 adults, including 653 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

** In Arizona, from Oct. 7 to Oct. 14, it gathered responses from 998 adults, including 667 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

** In Michigan, from Oct. 7 to Oct. 13, it gathered responses from 985 adults, including 620 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 5 percentage points.

** In North Carolina, from Oct. 7 to Oct. 13, it gathered responses from 1,000 adults, including 660 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

** In Wisconsin, from to Oct. 6 to Oct. 11, it gathered responses from 1,002 adults, including 577 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 5 percentage points.

** In Pennsylvania, from to Oct. 6 to Oct. 11, it gathered responses from 1,002 adults, including 622 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 5 percentage points.

(Reporting by Jason Lange; Additional reporting by Chris Kahn; Editing by Scott Malone and Peter Cooney)

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